Tuesday's T.03 and PLUS signals saw a nice number of DC trades elected. Some of the results (on our usually reported close-to-close basis) were S&P +16.3 points; DJ +118 points; AUD-JPY +188 ticks; AUD-USD +147 ticks; CAD-CHF +93 ticks (this was an inside bar trade); EUR-AUD +315 ticks and NZD-JPY  +153 ticks.

If you are a DC Member or have taken advantage of the Free Trial (link above) then all of these trades unfolded for you in real time with Dave in our Live Trade Room. That's some part of $8900 per one forex contract plus the Equity trades. If you haven't done so already, I suggest that you take a DC free trial now.

We are developing a number of new programs in conjunction with our partners Trade Navigator. These programs will allow batched or grouped orders to be placed with trade platforms (PFG etc) so you don't have to create each order, stops, exits etc individually.

At their request we have changed the contract size for Forex pairs, in the Trade Program to $10,000 or the equivalent of a mini contract.

The free one day Danielcode seminar is at the Union League Club of Chicago, 10AM to 5PM on Monday 16 August.  I will be talking about Danielcode theory, trade execution and DC "Time" cycles amongst other things, and what the future holds for US Equity markets.

Jerry Winter, VP of Striker Securities has organised a guided tour of the CME trading pits for us so this is your chance to get a feel for the wonderful world of trading.

And we are taking you to lunch and likely a few drinks at the famous watering hole on the ground floor of the Exchange.

This seminar is open to all and you don't have to be a DC member to attend, so please tell your friends that I would like to meet them there.

Email Jerry at jwinter@striker.com to make your reservation.

Our new Live Trade Room is generating a lot of comment in the Members Forum. This is a sample:

"Your Trade Room is absolutely incredible for shortening the learning curve. I have been simutrading for the last 4 weeks and had generated many questions regarding technique and the different markets. These last 3 nights of the Trade Room have been a blessing for me as there is so much information you have so generously shared. The transcript is like a text book which I will be studying over the holiday. Thank you for your dedication to the Daniel Code and its membership". Riversam

"Guys...if you want to learn the intricacies of placing DC trades, come join Dave in the subject Room. He's very patient." Lockycol

"Sam hit it on the head and I too appreciate your time and sacrifice and shared info that you and John have been so generous with. This is great stuff and I feel blessed to have found this group to learn from and cigars are on me." Cigarman

"I agree, having seen the trade room in action I think it's a fantastic opportunity for those learning to trade and those that already know, to listen to and talk through the execution of placing trades and stops etc with Dave." Socks

"Agreed, another great way to learn the Danielcode...in realtime!!!" Hex

" I have been following the trade room every day and have found it to be an amazing service to expand my knowledge of the intricacies of trading. Dave has been great in responding to questions. All-in-all, a great learning experience! Thanks for the dedication and sacrifice ... five nights a week, Wow!" Kit M
 

And from Dave H who runs the Live Trade Room:  "So far the Sim account that I'm running for the Trade Room is up 4.8% since we started on 6/28.  We'd have had a lot more if I'd had known about those equities trades."

Take the DC free trial today and join Dave at all hours in the Live Trade Room. Click on the Free Trial link above. 

Striker Securities are hosting a free 1 day Danielcode Seminar in Chicago on Monday 16 August at the Union League Club of Chicago.

I will be covering a basic appreciation of Danielcode theory and talking in detail about the DC Trade Signals and their application, the new DC Trade Program and the risk management protocols that we use to trade. This will be a very practical training Seminar so this is a great chance to start on your journey into trading Forex and Futures and a chance to ask all of those questions that you always wanted answered.

For those of you who have noted that the Danielcode "Time" cycles have accurately called the April high in US and European Equities and the recent highs in DX and Gold, I will show you how and why this amazing discovery continues to control all financial markets.

If you wish to attend, please email Jerry Winter, VP of Striker at jwinter@striker.com before the close of business on Monday. You do not need to be a Danielcode member to attend. All are welcome.

In keeping with our policy of being completely open and up front with our trading results, the monthly and cumulative results of our Danielcode trade signals has been published at the end of each month since we introduced the new and expanded T.03 PLUS signals on 12/01/09. The results of those trades is independently tracked by Dave Hunt who has now provided the results for June and the cumulative results from 12/09.

These trade signals cover S&P, GOLD, Dow, DAX and other US Equities, Silver, US T Bonds, 15 Forex pairs, Oil and some Grains.

In the Trading Reports tab at left, you will find details of the profitability of the Forex signals as traded by Striker Securities. Returns on Futures markets are generally comparable.

Sunday 4th July is the US Independence Day Holiday and celebrations. US markets are mainly closed on Monday 07/05. Some markets will close early tomorrow, Friday, and for those that do trade, volume will be thin.

There will be no Danielcode Trade Signals for Friday 07/02 or for the day after the holiday, Tuesday 07/06, as we always require a day at least, of normal trading after a holiday break, to reset the trade signals. Charts for the new week will be posted before the US open on Tuesday.

So this is a good opportunity for all of you to take a break from the busy world of trading, and I will be doing the same, with the Danielcode office closed from Thursday PM until Tuesday PM when members trade signals and the DC Trade Program will be resumed.

It's been a magnificent first half with the DC Trade Signals for members, rock steady at 86% Win for the whole period. In addition we have had the added bonus of seeing our Long Term Trend Charts call the April top in S&P and other equity markets to the day. That gave us a great start to trade the unfolding leg down in Equities.

Have an enjoyable and peaceful break. With the outstanding results that we have continually generated for you this year, we are certainly looking forward to some rest, relaxation and celebrations. Going forward, we can expect increased volatility as the year unfolds, and be certain that it will be a Trader's market all the way.

On the LTTCs, Wednesday's close confirmed the DOWN signal for S&P and US Equities generally, on the 12 day charts, that has been pending for a month or so.

Absent an immediate reversal, this signal presages sideways to down price action for 3-5 months at least.

From the Forum:

Q John,
Is there any idea what these numbers translate as far as a percentage return (ROE) on a sample account? Obviously, someone is/has been trading the DC using these rules below - even if on a simulated account; so what does that equate to for April and May as expressed by actual/simulated ROE (%). The last time this was done - if I remember correctly - was last year when someone did it on a hypothetical $50k account. Any updates what the winning/losing percentage translates to in actual return percentages? DS

A Dana:

1) Apologies for the delayed response to your earlier emails. The change to US ISPs last week disabled my Windows Mail program. My office has recovered 512 emails that require my attention so that will likely take a while.

2) Pete Kilman sends his regards.

3) The answer to your question largely depends on the assumptions about risk and professionalism (ie time available) from the trader. But I can give you the bare statistics:

A) The profitability across all DC trade signals is evenly spread with the exception of Corn which is our worst market. All other markets hit the 1st profit target (TN analysis across 8 markets so far) from 88.5% to 100% in the December 2009 to March 2010 sample. That accords with Dave Hunt's figures.

B) Profitability is equal across all types of DC signals.

C) Profitability is variable dependant on the stop loss regime selected, as this determines the exit point and average length of trade.

D) Profitability is a function of risk.

To find the base and simplest assumptions we asked Striker Securities to run an independent trial on the following basis:

i) Period of trial: 4 months. February to May 2010
ii) DC Trade Signals: From the T.03 PLUS suite of signals using just the "Daily" signals for Forex
iii) Stop on entry for day 1; utilise 1st target protocol; then 2 bar trailing stop on subsequent days; exit first profitable close.
iv) use 1% risk including correlations from the DC Trade Program.

NOTE THAT THIS TRIAL IS IN FOREX ONLY USING JUST THE "DAILY" SIGNALS SO THAT IS ABOUT 1/3 OF AVAILABLE FOREX SIGNALS AND 1/5 OF ALL DC TRADE SIGNALS. Short version is that a full trade program by pro traders returns multiples of the Striker account. This is an actual Sim account with PFG so accounts for spread changes etc and was managed by Striker. It includes the usual wobbles of missed trades, days off, mistakes etc. So it is as close to reality as we could make it.

SUMMARY FROM THE STRIKER $50K account (which will be posted under the Trading Reports tab at left when Miss N returns from her Ballet class!)

"The $50K Trading system Report
$50,000 Portfolio (Hypothetical Results)

This model simulated account was traded using the Daily Signals generated by the Daniel Code Trade Program (no blue line or T-3 carry over trades were taken). It followed the Forex signals with a risk of 1% per trade. The exit strategy took profits on ½ of the position at the First Target, and exited any remaining position on the First Profitable Close. The initial Reversal Stop was replaced with a Trailing Stop (240 bar) once Profit Target was elected or the position was not profitable after the close of the initial trading session.

Equity curve chart & Performance Tables

Important statistics

Average Annual Return 29.97%
Life Return-E 4 months (start 02/22/2010) 8.16%
Max.Drawdown (m/m)*-1.47%
Sharpe Ratio 9.30
Sterling Ratio 2.61
Rates of Return Table Simple
Feb-08 1.58%
Mar-08 2.88%
Apr-08 0.67%
May-08 3.04%
Life 8.16%"

The important stats are max drawdown (the destroyer of trading programs); Sharpe Ratio, see http://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/sharpe_ratio.asp and the annual return which you can multiply by 5 to get an approximation on using all the Forex and Futures signals. Or multiply by 4 to match the risk % in the forex model account (not recommended). Make your own assumptions. The '08 note on the simple returns is a computer error.

Short version: In the right hands it is the best trade program in the world.

Here are the latest Danielcode Trade Signals results from the daily T.03 and T.03 PLUS signals, posted for members usually 3-4 hours after each market close. These signals are independently monitored and compiled by our meticulous score keeper Dave Hunt. Monthly summaries for December to March have been posted here previously.

April Signals:

Winners                     101  84%

Losers                          19  15%

Not Elected                 50  29% of total signals issued

S&R Winners               5  26% of losing trades

S&R Losers                   1

May Signals:

Winners                     65  89%

Losers                          8  11%

Not Elected               41  37% of total signals issued

S&R Winners             3  38% of losing trades

S&R Losers                 0

Cumulative Total: December 1, 2009 through May 31, 2010 (six months) 

Winners                      527  86%

Losers                           87  14%

Not Elected                349  36% of total signals issued

Net S&R Winners       27  31% of losing trades

Dave 

Please remember the rules that are being used to monitor the T.03 and T.03 Plus signals:

1.      All entries were taken on the daily charts. There were no advanced entries off of shorter term charts in this study.

2.      The stop strategy used was a 2-bar trailing stop on the daily chart. Again, no shorter term charts were used.

3.      Stop and Reverse was taken on every losing trade.

4.      The 20-tick crash stop (or DC Trade Program 1^st target protocol) was used in every trade. 

No entry was taken in markets where the open gapped past the DC first target number.